So Confused about Polarizing ICML Reviews [D]

Hi, rebuttals recently finished, and I wanted to share my paper's scores to ask for thoughts on this, and whether this situation is borderline and dependent on the AC.

My paper started out as 5 (4), 4 (4), 4 (3), 2 (4). After the rebuttals, I ended up at 5 (4), 5 (4), 5 (3), 2 (5). This makes the average 4.25, with a confidence average of 4.

The two 4 reviewers both increased their ratings to 5 and wrote nice Final Justifications (one said they were confident the final version would be a strong submission, the other said all their concerns were resolved). However, the 2 reviewer hated the paper from the start.

While some critiques were valid, others were asking for a different paper. I still responded cleanly to them, and their response was even more aggressive. I responded once again, and as expected, they did not change their score and just increased the confidence. They also dropped originality to 1 (all other fields were at 2). Every other reviewer gave us a 4 for originality!!

This is my first time submitting to ICML, so I'm wondering how cases like this play out - is one confident negative reviewer enough to sink the ship? Or is it largely a coin flip? Any thoughts on this would be appreciated!