Gray whales (Eschrichtius robustus) in San Francisco Bay experience high mortality and have limited affiliation to known foraging groups

Terrestrial and marine species are exhibiting distributional shifts due to climate change and resource availability. As food webs are impacted, some species have moved into areas of increased human activity, encountering anthropogenic hazards. A coastal marine species that undertakes a long migration between breeding and foraging ranges, the Eastern North Pacific (ENP) population of gray whales (Eschrichtius robustus) is especially vulnerable to changes. Subgroups of ENP gray whales, including the Pacific Coast Feeding Group and the (Puget) Sounders, have adapted to exploit alternative feeding grounds as prey availability declines in the Arctic. Novel to known migration phenology, gray whales have been observed seasonally since 2018 in San Francisco Bay (SF Bay), California. We evaluated subgroup identity and mortality of gray whales in SF Bay from 2018–2025 using photo-identification. Data were collected through vessel-based surveys, opportunistic effort, and community submissions. We identified 114 individual whales of which eight were matched to a subgroup, indicating gray whales utilizing SF Bay are not merely a range extension by foraging subgroups. Only four gray whales were resighted within SF Bay between years. Using photographs, 21 individuals were successfully matched to carcasses and a minimum mortality rate of 18% was determined. Blunt and/or sharp force trauma consistent with vessel strike was determined to be the cause of death for 30 of 70 carcasses, and for nine of 11 matched animals where a cause of death was determined. Sounder and PCFG matched whales were more likely to survive SF Bay than ENP individuals, though minimum length of stay did not influence mortality. This work confirms that gray whales entering SF Bay are highly susceptible to vessel strike mortality and highlights a crucial need to identify and implement adaptive management strategies to mitigate injuries and mortality as whales continue to utilize novel habitat.